Vasco DA Gama vs Olimpia · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 30 Apr 2026 · Cortex AI

CONMEBOL Sudamericana·Group Stage - 3

Full time

Vasco DA Gama

0:0

Full time

Olimpia

VenueEstádio São Januário

RefereeJesús Valenzuela, Venezuela

KickoffThu 30 Apr, 22:00

Cortex Pick

pro tier

Generated

AI summary58% confidence

Cortex projects: Vasco DA Gama win

Vasco home advantage in CONMEBOL group stage; implied 54% market probability aligns with modest form edge.
Olimpia conceded only 3 goals in last 5 (L-D-W-W), tightest defensive run of either side — suppresses scoring upside.
Vasco's last-5 record mixed (L-W-W-L-D), no dominant streak; 6 GF but also 5 GA signals leakiness on both ends.

Free during launch

CxCortex Pick·PROGenerated 1d ago·claude-sonnet-4-6

2won·2lost·2push

Match winnerWon

Vasco DA Gama win

0conf

AI Signal Radar67 avg

Six signal dimensions Cortex weighed. The shape is what the AI saw before the call — thin lobes mean thin data, full lobes mean high conviction.

Form67
H2H49
Market82
Injuries55
Standings56
Edge90

Vasco hold genuine home advantage and the market prices them at 54% implied — no clear overlay but the edge is real. Olimpia's defensive solidity in recent form (3 GA in 4 games) constrains the over 2.5 line; Under 1.73 offers slight value vs the goal-output signals. BTTS is a near coin-flip: Vasco's 5 GA in 5 suggests vulnerability, but Olimpia's away attacking depth is opaque given sparse squad data. The under and home win combination is the most coherent read across form, odds, and defensive signals.

Goals lines

Both teams to scoreYes

54%

Total goals 2.5Under

54%

Player props

3 calls

Bookmakers price player performance lines loosely — this is where the AI hunts the edge.

A. Gómezhome

Shots Over 1.5

A. Gómez averages 2.22 shots/90 across 27 apps (1948 min). Line of 1.5 sits clearly below that average. Consistent sample size justifies moderate confidence.

Push

63%

J. Alfaroaway

Tackles Over 1.5

J. Alfaro averages 2.0 tackles/90 across 19 apps (1262 min). As Olimpia's primary midfield anchor away from home, high-pressure defensive output expected. Line of 1.5 is comfortably below per-90 average.

Lost

61%

A. Gómezhome

Key passes Under 1.5

A. Gómez averages 1.39 key passes/90 — just below the 1.5 line. Against Olimpia's disciplined defensive block, output likely suppressed; slight lean under but low conviction.

Push

55%

Period markets

2 calls

1H GoalsUnder 1.5

Olimpia's compact recent form (3 GA in 4) suggests they set up defensively, especially away. Vasco's inconsistency (L on either side of W-W run) points to slow starts. First-half likely cautious.

Won

55%

75'+

Goal 75-90'Yes

Both sides have shown late-game goal involvement across their last-5 combined 11 goals. Vasco's home urgency if level late and Olimpia's counter threat make a closing-period goal plausible, though no granular time data available.

Lost

54%

Cortex Uncovered

What the AI weighed

Vasco home advantage in CONMEBOL group stage; implied 54% market probability aligns with modest form edge.
Olimpia conceded only 3 goals in last 5 (L-D-W-W), tightest defensive run of either side — suppresses scoring upside.
Vasco's last-5 record mixed (L-W-W-L-D), no dominant streak; 6 GF but also 5 GA signals leakiness on both ends.
Olimpia's squad block is thin (2 active outfield starters identifiable); depth concerns for away side but data is limited.

Fair priceVasco DA Gama win

1.85 on Vasco is close to fair value at ~54% implied. No material odds gap to exploit; back for small edge only.