CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores·Group Stage - 3
Full time
Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
0:0
Full time
CuscoCusco
VenueEstadio Atanasio Girardot
RefereeGery Vargas, Bolivia
Kickoff

Cortex Pick

pro tier
Generated
AI summary68% confidence

Cortex projects: Independiente Medellin win

Medellin hold a substantial home price advantage and Cusco arrive with zero Libertadores points and a -3 goal difference. Cusco's defensive record (13ga in last 5) indicates vulnerability, but Medellin's own group stage inconsistency (1pt from 2, GD -3) tempers confidence. Cusco's attack is limited — only 4 goals in last 5 — making BTTS lean toward no, though Medellin's ga of 7 in 5 games introduces doubt.

  • Medellin 1.35 home favourite implies 74% win probability; Cusco winless in 2 Libertadores games with GD -3.
  • Cusco's last 5 domestic form: W-W-L-L-L, conceding 13 goals — porous defence away from altitude.
  • Medellin's Libertadores group form reads LDWDD — inconsistent; only 1pt from 2 games despite home advantage.
Free during launch
CxCortex Pick·PROGenerated 1d ago·claude-sonnet-4-6
Match winner
Independiente Medellin win
0conf
FormH2HMarketInjuriesStandingsEdge
AI Signal Radar63 avg

Six signal dimensions Cortex weighed. The shape is what the AI saw before the call — thin lobes mean thin data, full lobes mean high conviction.

  • Form72
  • H2H25
  • Market82
  • Injuries55
  • Standings56
  • Edge90

Medellin hold a substantial home price advantage and Cusco arrive with zero Libertadores points and a -3 goal difference. Cusco's defensive record (13ga in last 5) indicates vulnerability, but Medellin's own group stage inconsistency (1pt from 2, GD -3) tempers confidence. Cusco's attack is limited — only 4 goals in last 5 — making BTTS lean toward no, though Medellin's ga of 7 in 5 games introduces doubt. Over 2.5 is live given Cusco's leaky defence but Medellin's modest scoring output keeps it a slight lean rather than a strong play.

Goals lines

Both teams to scoreNo
57%
Total goals 2.5Over
58%

Player props

3 calls

Bookmakers price player performance lines loosely — this is where the AI hunts the edge.

DC
D. Catañohome
Key passes Over 2.5

Cataño averages 2.79 key passes per 90 across 9 apps (419 min). Line of 2.5 sits just below his per-90 rate. Small sample (9 apps) caps confidence.

62%
LB
L. Berríohome
Shots Over 1.5

Berrío averages 2.29 shots per 90 across 9 apps (510 min). Line at 1.5 is comfortably below that average. Sample size (9 apps) keeps confidence capped.

58%
JM
J. Manzanedaaway
Key passes Over 1.5

Manzaneda averages 1.99 key passes per 90 across 12 apps (677 min). Line at 1.5 is below his seasonal average, but away in Libertadores vs organised home side adds risk.

57%

Period markets

2 calls
1H
1H GoalsOver 0.5

Medellin are heavy favourites pressing at home; Cusco's leaky defence (13ga in last 5) suggests early vulnerability. Expect Medellin to threaten early, making a first-half goal likely.

60%
2H
2H GoalsOver 1.5

Cusco's defensive fragility across last 5 games (13ga) points to goals accumulating. If Medellin lead at half, Cusco must open up, creating space. Modest confidence given Medellin's inconsistent group stage output.

55%

Cortex Uncovered

What the AI weighed
  • Medellin 1.35 home favourite implies 74% win probability; Cusco winless in 2 Libertadores games with GD -3.
  • Cusco's last 5 domestic form: W-W-L-L-L, conceding 13 goals — porous defence away from altitude.
  • Medellin's Libertadores group form reads LDWDD — inconsistent; only 1pt from 2 games despite home advantage.
  • Cusco squad block has 2 players with 0 apps (Custodio, Aucca) — thin depth, potential availability doubts.
Fair priceIndependiente Medellin win

1.35 (74% implied) is roughly in line with the signal strength. No meaningful gap to exploit; home win is the correct call but not a value bet at this price.

Match timeline

Independiente Medellin0′—93′Match timelineCusco
87'
Home goalAway goalYellowRed
  1. F. FabraYellow
    90+3'
  2. 90+1'
  3. 90+1'
  4. 90+1'
  5. 87'
  6. 79'
  7. 78'
  8. 74'
    P. DiazYellow
  9. 70'
  10. 64'
  11. 63'
  12. 63'
  13. 63'
  14. 56'
  15. 46'

Match statistics

Match statistics

17 stats
63%
Possession
Independiente Medellin63|37Cusco
Shots on goal
6goals
Independiente Medellin
1goals
Cusco
Total shots
21shots
Independiente Medellin
10shots
Cusco
  • 21Total shots10
  • 6Shots on goal1
  • 11Shots off goal8
  • 12Shots inside box3
  • 514Total passes302
  • 91%Pass accuracy81%
  • 6Corners1
  • 10Fouls4
  • 3Yellow cards2
  • –Red cards–
  • 0Offsides1
  • 4Blocked shots1
  • 9Shots outside box7
  • 1Goalkeeper saves5
  • 466Passes accurate245
  • 1.12Expected goals (xG)0.37
  • 0.16Goals prevented0.16

Cortex Quick Read

Market & statistical baseline
Free
📊
Headline read
Double chance : Independiente Medellin or draw
Independiente Medellin edge
Match outcome splitAPI model · implied %
Independiente Medellin45%
Draw45%
Cusco10%
Statistical comparison5-axis · API model
Form
100%
0%
Attack
83%
17%
Defense
36%
64%
Goals model
70%
30%
Independiente Medellin · league form
WDDWDL
Cusco · league form
LL
Public statistical baseline. Cortex AI’s full read — niche markets, player props, and risk alerts — sits at the top of this page.Read 0 data points

Lineups

4-4-1-1 vs 4-4-1-1
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin4-4-1-1Juan Botero
vsCusco
Cusco4-4-1-1Alejandro Orfila
Eder Chaux
Chaux
Frank Fabra
Fabra
Daniel Londoño
Londoño
José Ortiz
Ortiz
Esneyder Mena
Mena
Yony González
González
Alexis Serna
Serna
Halam Loboa
Loboa
Francisco Chaverra
Chaverra
Daniel Cataño
Cataño
Francisco Fydriszewski
87′
Fydriszewski
Pedro Diaz
Diaz
José Zevallos
Zevallos
Alvaro Ampuero
Ampuero
Aldair Fuentes
Fuentes
Marlon Ruidías
Ruidías
José Miguel Manzaneda
Miguel Manzaneda
Oswaldo Valenzuela
Valenzuela
Diego Soto
Soto
Nicolás Silva
Silva
Gabriel Carabajal
Carabajal
Facundo Callejo
Callejo

Independiente Medellin bench

11

Cusco bench

11

Recent form

Last 5 matches
Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin
L1-4Flamengo
W1-0Alianza Valledupar
W2-0Chico
W1-0Fortaleza FC
CuscoCusco
W2-1Sport Huancayo
W1-0FC Cajamarca
L0-8Alianza Lima
L1-2Estudiantes L.P.

Head-to-head

0 previous meetings
No previous meetings on record between these teams.

Market odds

via 10Bet
Source: 10Bet13 bookmakers · 4.3% spread
Match Winner
Independiente MedellinFav
1.3574%
Draw
4.7021%
Cusco
8.7011%
Double Chance
Independiente or DrawFav
1.0694%
Independiente or Cusco
1.1488%
Draw or Cusco
3.1032%
Total Goals 2.5
OverFav
1.6760%
Under
2.1547%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
1.9152%
NoFav
1.8056%
Half-time Result
Independiente MedellinFav
1.8355%
Draw
2.3842%
Cusco
7.0014%
Correct Score · 5 most likely
2:018%
5.50
1:017%
6.00
2:114%
7.00
3:013%
7.50
1:113%
8.00

Injuries & suspensions

0 reported
No injuries or suspensions reported.

Both squads at full availability.

Standings

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026
Play-off
#TeamPW-D-LGDPts
1FlamengoFlamengo32-1-0+57
2Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.31-2-0+15
3Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin20-1-1-31
4CuscoCusco20-0-2-30