Every published pick gets graded after the match. For each confidence band we show what we said (the label) and what actually hit (the realised rate). When the second bar matches or exceeds the first, we under-promised. When it falls short, we over-promised.
We hide reliability figures until we have at least 30 settled picks. With 0settled today, the uncertainty range on any band is too wide to claim either way — we’d rather wait than mislead.
See upcoming Cortex Picks →Match winner, player props, period markets — every market we graded, in the order it settled. No filters, no cherry-picks.