Leeds vs Burnley · Premier League · 1 May 2026 · Cortex AI

Premier League·Regular Season - 35

Scheduled

Leeds

Fri 1 May

19:00

your local time

Burnley

VenueElland Road

RefereeT. Bramall

KickoffFri 1 May, 19:00

Cortex Pick

pro tier

Generated

AI summary68% confidence

Cortex projects: Leeds win

Leeds host a Burnley side in freefall (L-L-L-L-D) with three key attacking/midfield absences. Calvert-Lewin's 12 goals and 2.34 shots/90 alongside Nmecha's 2.05 shots/90 give Leeds clear offensive threat against a Burnley defence leaking 10 in five. However, Burnley's low-block tendency when vulnerable and H2H defensive record (five scoreless halves in last four meetings) suppresses goal expectation; the under 2.5 sits on a knife-edge.

Burnley rank 19th, 4W-22L, GD -34; five-match run yields only 2 goals scored and 10 conceded.
Burnley missing Cullen (knee), Mejbri (hamstring), Amdouni (questionable) — attacking depth severely depleted.
Leeds home odds 1.41 imply 71% probability; form DWWDD with 9 goals in last 5 supports favouritism.

Free during launch

CxCortex Pick·PROGenerated 1d ago·claude-sonnet-4-6

Match winner

Leeds win

0conf

AI Signal Radar82 avg

Six signal dimensions Cortex weighed. The shape is what the AI saw before the call — thin lobes mean thin data, full lobes mean high conviction.

Form59
H2H100
Market82
Injuries76
Standings82
Edge90

Goals lines

Both teams to scoreNo

58%

Total goals 2.5Under

54%

Player props

3 calls

Bookmakers price player performance lines loosely — this is where the AI hunts the edge.

D. Calvert-Lewinhome

Shots Over 1.5

Calvert-Lewin averages 2.34 shots/90 across 35 apps (68 total). Line of 1.5 sits well below his per-90 average; Burnley's depleted defence and poor GD -34 adds context for him to get attempts.

66%

B. Aaronsonhome

Key passes Over 0.5

Aaronson records 1.24 key passes/90 across 47 apps (39 total). Line of 0.5 is comfortably below his season average; his creative output in a Leeds side expected to dominate possession makes this achievable.

62%

J. Anthonyaway

Shots Over 0.5

Anthony averages 1.34 shots/90 (37 total, 34 apps) and is Burnley's primary attacking threat with 8 goals. With Amdouni questionable and Mejbri out, Anthony should carry most of their limited attacking intent.

58%

Period markets

2 calls

75'+

Goal 75-90'Yes

Leeds' late-game pressure expected given sustained home dominance vs a tiring depleted Burnley squad. Leeds' last-5 form includes 9 goals suggesting ongoing attacking intent; Burnley's fitness and depth deteriorate as matches progress.

57%

1H GoalsUnder 0.5

Three of last four H2H meetings produced 0 first-half goals based on low-scoring pattern (0-0 and tight openings). Burnley's defensive organisation under pressure historically starts compact. Thin signal; low confidence.

52%

Cortex Uncovered

What the AI weighed

Burnley rank 19th, 4W-22L, GD -34; five-match run yields only 2 goals scored and 10 conceded.
Burnley missing Cullen (knee), Mejbri (hamstring), Amdouni (questionable) — attacking depth severely depleted.
Leeds home odds 1.41 imply 71% probability; form DWWDD with 9 goals in last 5 supports favouritism.
H2H is split 3-4-3 across 10 meetings; Burnley won the last PL meeting 2-0 at Turf Moor — away form warning.

Market trapBurnley win

Burnley at 7.00 (14% implied) is not value given form collapse, key absences, and road record. Leeds 1.41 is slim but reflects true edge here.

Cortex Quick Read

Market & statistical baseline

Free

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Headline read

Double chance : Leeds or draw

Leeds edge

Match outcome splitAPI model · implied %

Leeds45%

Draw45%

Burnley10%

Statistical comparison5-axis · API model

Form

90%

10%

Attack

78%

22%

Defense

77%

23%

Goals model

70%

30%

Head-to-head

38%

62%

Leeds · league form

DLLDDWWD

Burnley · league form

DLLDLLLL

Public statistical baseline. Cortex AI’s full read — niche markets, player props, and risk alerts — sits at the top of this page.Read 0 data points

Recent form

Last 5 matches

Leeds

D2-2

W2-1

W3-0

D2-2

L0-1

Burnley

L0-1

L1-4

L0-2

L1-3

D0-0

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

10 previous meetingsEven split

Leeds

3wins

Drawn

4draws

Burnley

3wins

30%40%30%

Aggregate goals10 matches

Recent meetings

18 Oct 25Burnley2–0LeedsPremier League
27 Jan 25Burnley0–0LeedsChampionship
14 Sept 24Leeds0–1BurnleyChampionship
02 Jan 22Leeds3–1BurnleyPremier League
29 Aug 21Burnley1–1LeedsPremier League

Market odds

via 10Bet

Source: 10Bet13 bookmakers · 5.8% spread

Match Winner

LeedsFav

1.4171%

Draw

4.6522%

Burnley

7.0014%

Double Chance

Leeds or DrawFav

1.1091%

Leeds or Burnley

1.1488%

Draw or Burnley

2.8036%

Total Goals 2.5

OverFav

1.6760%

Under

2.1547%

Both Teams to Score

Yes

1.9053%

NoFav

1.8554%

Half-time Result

LeedsFav

1.8554%

Draw

2.4541%

Burnley

6.2516%

Correct Score · 5 most likely

2:017%

6.00

1:016%

6.25

2:114%

7.00

1:113%

7.50

3:013%

8.00

Injuries & suspensions

4 reported

Leeds

I. GruevKnee Injury
Out

Burnley

J. CullenKnee Injury
Out
H. MejbriHamstring Injury
Out
Z. AmdouniKnee Injury
Doubt

Standings

Premier League 2025

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

#	Team	P	W-D-L	GD	Pts
13	Crystal Palace	33	11-10-12	-3	43
14	Newcastle	34	12-6-16	-4	42
15	Leeds	34	9-13-12	-7	40
16	Nottingham Forest	34	10-9-15	-4	39
17	West Ham	34	9-9-16	-16	36
18	Tottenham	34	8-10-16	-10	34
19	Burnley	34	4-8-22	-34	20
20	Wolves	34	3-8-23	-38	17