Liverpool arrive with 8 confirmed absentees including Salah, Ekitike, Bradley, and Bajcetic, gutting both their attacking and midfield depth. United sit 3rd (61pts, 17W) with a W-W-L-D-W run; Liverpool are 4th (58pts) and their recent form (W-W-L-W-L) masks the injury burden now compounding. Market has MU at 45% implied — we read them closer to 53% given the Salah absence and venue advantage, a ~8pp gap. BTTS yes is supported by both teams conceding in their last 5 and H2H aggregate of 38 goals in 10 meetings (3.8/game); the 1.42 line implies 70%, we see ~72-73%. Over 2.5 aligns with H2H trend and the open game dynamic a depleted Liverpool away side creates. Pre-mortem for matchWinner: if Liverpool's makeshift attack (Wirtz + rotated forwards) finds early rhythm and MU's defensive absences (Martinez red card, de Ligt injury) are exposed, the edge collapses — that is the primary failure mode.