La Liga·Regular Season - 34Full time
VenueEstadio Mendizorrotza
RefereeAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez, Spain
Kickoff
Cortex Pick
pro tierAI summary · abstained
Cortex passed on Alaves vs Athletic Club
H2H favours Athletic 5-2-3 over 10 meetings but Alaves won both most recent fixtures; implied 37% home vs 40% away is close to our read with no exploitable gap.
Free during launch
Cortex Pick · Pro2d ago · claude-sonnet-4-6
No edge · abstained
Cortex passed on this fixture
Conflicting signals
H2H favours Athletic 5-2-3 over 10 meetings but Alaves won both most recent fixtures; implied 37% home vs 40% away is close to our read with no exploitable gap.
Cortex looks at every fixture but only publishes a call when the numbers point to real value. Skipping is part of the product.
Match timeline
Alaves0′—92′Match timelineAthletic Club
8'
46'
68'
74'
83'
87'
Home goalAway goalYellowRed
- 90+2'Carles AleñáYellow
- 89'
- 87'N. Williamsassist G. Guruzeta
- 83'N. Williamsassist G. Guruzeta
- 76'Nico WilliamsYellow
- 74'O. Sancetassist Y. Berchiche
- 73'
- 73'
- 68'N. Tenagliaassist A. Rebbach
- 62'
- 62'
- 59'Antonio BlancoYellow
- 59'Gorka GuruzetaYellow
- 49'Pablo IbáñezYellow
- 45+1'Toni MartínezVAR · Penalty cancelled
- 46'
- 46'
- 46'
- 46'R. Navarroassist N. Williams
- 28'Toni MartínezYellow
- 8'
- -5'Mikel JauregizarYellow
Match statistics
Match statistics
17 stats50%
Possession
Alaves50|50Athletic Club
Shots on goal
4goals
Alaves
4goals
Athletic Club
Total shots
7shots
Alaves
9shots
Athletic Club
- 7Total shots9
- 4Shots on goal4
- 1Shots off goal4
- 4Shots inside box7
- 402Total passes402
- 78%Pass accuracy82%
- 4Corners7
- 8Fouls13
- 4Yellow cards3
- –Red cards–
- 4Offsides0
- 2Blocked shots1
- 3Shots outside box2
- 0Goalkeeper saves2
- 314Passes accurate330
- 0.49Expected goals (xG)0.93
- -0.89Goals prevented-0.89
Cortex Quick Read
Market & statistical baselineHeadline read
Double chance : Alaves or draw
Match outcome splitAPI model · implied %
Alaves45%
Draw45%
Athletic Club10%
Statistical comparisonfrom market & model
Form
57%
43%
Attack
67%
33%
Defense
42%
58%
Goals model
60%
40%
Head-to-head
50%
50%
Alaves · league form
LLDWDDLW
Athletic Club · league form
DLLWLLWL
Public statistical baseline. Cortex AI’s full read — niche markets, player props, and risk alerts — sits at the top of this page.Read 0 data points
Lineups
5-3-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Alaves5-3-2Quique Sanchez Flores
vs
Athletic Club4-2-3-1Ernesto Valverde
Alaves bench
12
R. FernandezGoalkeeper13
G. SwiderskiGoalkeeper31
V. KoskiDefender16- 34
YusiDefender3- 27
M. DiazForward9
C. AlenaMidfielderyel 92′10
J. GuridiMidfielder18
A. GuevaraMidfielder6
J. PachecoDefender5
CalebeMidfielder20
Athletic Club bench
12
A. PadillaGoalkeeper27
A. BerenguerForward7
D. VivianDefender3
J. AresoDefender12
R. NavarroMidfielder⚽ 46′23
A. ParedesDefender4
N. SerranoForward22
I. Ruiz de GalarretaMidfielder16
M. VesgaMidfielder6
O. SancetMidfielder⚽ 74′8
IzetaForward25
A. BoiroDefender19
Recent form
Last 5 matches
AlavesD2-2
D3-3
L1-2
W2-1
Athletic ClubL2-3
W1-0
L1-2
L0-2
Head-to-head
10 previous meetings10 previous meetingsAthletic Club leads 5-2
Alaves2wins
Drawn
3draws
Athletic Club5wins
20%30%50%
Aggregate goals10 matches
4
10
Recent meetings
5- 13 Sept 25Athletic Club0–1AlavesLa Liga
- 22 Jul 25Alaves1–0Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
- 11 May 25Athletic Club1–0AlavesLa Liga
- 15 Dec 24Alaves1–1Athletic ClubLa Liga
- 16 Mar 24Athletic Club2–0AlavesLa Liga
Market odds
via 10BetSource: 10Bet12 bookmakers · 3.0% spread
Match Winner
Alaves
2.6837%
Draw
3.3530%
Athletic ClubFav
2.5240%
Double Chance
Alaves or Draw
1.5067%
Alaves or AthleticFav
1.2580%
Draw or Athletic
1.4569%
Total Goals 2.5
Over
2.0050%
UnderFav
1.8056%
Both Teams to Score
YesFav
1.7756%
No
2.0050%
Half-time Result
Alaves
3.2031%
DrawFav
2.1547%
Athletic Club
3.0033%
Correct Score · 5 most likely
1:118%
5.50
1:014%
7.00
0:114%
7.00
2:113%
8.00
1:213%
8.00
Injuries & suspensions
5 reportedAlaves
3
L. BoyeMuscle InjuryOut
F. GarcesSuspendedOut
C. ProtesoniMuscle InjuryOut
Athletic Club
2
B. Prados DiazKnee InjuryOut
M. SannadiCoach's decisionOut
Standings
La Liga 2025Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 11-10-12 | 0 | 43 |
| 9 | Osasuna | 33 | 11-9-13 | -1 | 42 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 33 | 12-5-16 | -12 | 41 |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 9-12-12 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Valencia | 33 | 10-9-14 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 33 | 10-9-14 | -12 | 39 |
| 14 |  Elche | 33 | 9-11-13 | -6 | 38 |
| 15 | Mallorca | 34 | 10-8-16 | -9 | 38 |
| 16 |  Girona | 34 | 9-11-14 | -15 | 38 |
| 17 | Alaves | 33 | 9-9-15 | -11 | 36 |
| 18 |  Sevilla | 33 | 9-7-17 | -15 | 34 |
| 19 |  Levante | 34 | 8-9-17 | -17 | 33 |