Süper Lig·Regular Season - 32Cortex Pick
pro tierCortex projects: Antalyaspor win
Antalyaspor at 33% implied is meaningfully under-priced given their 6-1 h2h win dominance over Alanyaspor across 10 meetings and home advantage. Alanyaspor's squad disruption (Mounie suspended, Ozdemir suspended, Aliti questionable) weakens their attacking options — G. Yalcin as primary forward already operating at 1.82 shots/90 in a side that scores sparingly.
- Market prices Alanyaspor as favourites (44% implied) despite Antalyaspor holding 6-3-1 h2h advantage with 18-8 aggregate goals — clear structural mispricing.
- Alanyaspor missing S. Mounie (yellow card ban) and Y. Ozdemir (suspended), with F. Aliti questionable — notable attacking/defensive disruption.
- Both teams in poor form: Antalyaspor L-L-L-W-D, Alanyaspor L-L-L-D-D — combined 9gf/17ga in last 5 games each signals low-scoring encounter.
Six signal dimensions Cortex weighed. The shape is what the AI saw before the call — thin lobes mean thin data, full lobes mean high conviction.
- Form54
- H2H100
- Market81
- Injuries72
- Standings79
- Edge42
Antalyaspor at 33% implied is meaningfully under-priced given their 6-1 h2h win dominance over Alanyaspor across 10 meetings and home advantage. Alanyaspor's squad disruption (Mounie suspended, Ozdemir suspended, Aliti questionable) weakens their attacking options — G. Yalcin as primary forward already operating at 1.82 shots/90 in a side that scores sparingly. Both teams average fewer than 1 goal per game in recent form, and three of last four h2h meetings produced under 2.5 goals. Pre-mortem: Antalyaspor call fails if their own leaky defence (17 conceded in last 5) gifts Alanyaspor a set-piece goal and the home side cannot convert despite h2h edge.
Goals lines
Period markets
1 call3 of last 4 h2h meetings were goalless or low-scoring in first half; both teams' recent form shows defensive caution (combined 9gf in 10 games). Alanyaspor missing key personnel further suppresses early attacking intent.
What the AI weighed
- Market prices Alanyaspor as favourites (44% implied) despite Antalyaspor holding 6-3-1 h2h advantage with 18-8 aggregate goals — clear structural mispricing.
- Alanyaspor missing S. Mounie (yellow card ban) and Y. Ozdemir (suspended), with F. Aliti questionable — notable attacking/defensive disruption.
- Both teams in poor form: Antalyaspor L-L-L-W-D, Alanyaspor L-L-L-D-D — combined 9gf/17ga in last 5 games each signals low-scoring encounter.
- Under 2.5 implied at 55.6% (odds 1.8); our read at ~63% given both defences leaky but attacks muted and h2h last 4 meetings avg 1.5 goals/game.
Antalyaspor priced at 3.00 (33% implied) against a side they lead 6-1-3 in h2h with 18-8 goal aggregate. Market over-weights Alanyaspor's superior league standing (rank 12 vs 16) while ignoring fixture-specific h2h and Alanyaspor's suspension losses.
Cortex Quick Read
Market & statistical baselineRecent form
Last 5 matches
Antalyaspor
Alanyaspor
Head-to-head
10 previous meetingsAntalyasporAlanyasporRecent meetings
5- 08 Dec 25Alanyaspor0–0AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 28 Mar 25Antalyaspor2–1AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 27 Oct 24Alanyaspor1–2AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 24 May 24Alanyaspor1–1AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 05 Jan 24Antalyaspor0–0AlanyasporSüper Lig
Market odds
via 10BetInjuries & suspensions
3 reportedAntalyaspor
0No reported absences.
Squad at full strength.
Alanyaspor
3
S. MounieYellow CardsOut
Y. OzdemirSuspendedOut
F. AlitiInactiveDoubt
Standings
Süper Lig 2025| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gaziantep FK | 32 | 9-10-13 | -13 | 37 |
| 11 |  Kocaelispor | 31 | 9-9-13 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 |  Alanyaspor | 31 | 6-15-10 | -1 | 33 |
| 13 | Kasımpaşa | 31 | 7-10-14 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 31 | 7-7-17 | -14 | 28 |
| 15 | Eyüpspor | 31 | 7-7-17 | -19 | 28 |
| 16 |  Antalyaspor | 31 | 7-7-17 | -21 | 28 |
| 17 |  Kayserispor | 31 | 5-11-15 | -34 | 26 |
| 18 |  Fatih Karagümrük | 31 | 5-6-20 | -26 | 21 |