Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 32Full time
VenueParque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
RefereeHelder Malheiro, Portugal
Kickoff
Cortex Pick
pro tierAI summary · abstained
Cortex passed on Moreirense vs Estrela
Implied 38/32/37% is near-even three-way market; h2h leans Moreirense (3W-4D-1L) but recent form is poor on both sides, and no signal clearly misprices any outcome.
Free during launch
Cortex Pick · Pro1d ago · claude-sonnet-4-6
No edge · abstained
Cortex passed on this fixture
Line is efficient
Implied 38/32/37% is near-even three-way market; h2h leans Moreirense (3W-4D-1L) but recent form is poor on both sides, and no signal clearly misprices any outcome.
Cortex looks at every fixture but only publishes a call when the numbers point to real value. Skipping is part of the product.
Match timeline
Moreirense0′—94′Match timelineEstrela
13'
36'
45'
73'
90'
Home goalAway goalYellowRed
- 90+4'Gilberto BatistaYellow
- 90+4'OtavioYellow
- 90'
- 81'
- 81'
- 77'Jefferson EncadaYellow
- 76'
- 73'
- 70'
- 70'
- 68'
- 68'
- 64'
- 50'Fabiano SouzaYellow
- 46'
- 46'
- 45'AlanzinhoGoal · Normal Goal
- 44'LandersonVAR · Penalty confirmed
- 40'Rodrigo AlonsoYellow
- 36'I. StoicaGoal · Penalty
- 31'Max ScholzeYellow
- 25'Rodrigo PinhoYellow
- 13'JovaneGoal · Penalty
- 12'Caio SeccoYellow
Match statistics
Match statistics
17 stats66%
Possession
Moreirense66|34Estrela
Shots on goal
5goals
Moreirense
3goals
Estrela
Total shots
14shots
Moreirense
10shots
Estrela
- 14Total shots10
- 5Shots on goal3
- 4Shots off goal4
- 9Shots inside box8
- 562Total passes284
- 88%Pass accuracy73%
- 1Corners4
- 18Fouls18
- 4Yellow cards4
- –Red cards–
- 1Offsides0
- 5Blocked shots3
- 5Shots outside box2
- 1Goalkeeper saves2
- 493Passes accurate207
- 1.68Expected goals (xG)2.75
- -0.21Goals prevented-0.21
Cortex Quick Read
Market & statistical baselineHeadline read
Double chance : Moreirense or draw
Match outcome splitAPI model · implied %
Moreirense35%
Draw35%
Estrela30%
Statistical comparisonfrom market & model
Form
57%
43%
Attack
38%
63%
Defense
46%
54%
Goals model
60%
40%
Head-to-head
50%
50%
Moreirense · league form
DDLLLDWL
Estrela · league form
DDLWLLLL
Public statistical baseline. Cortex AI’s full read — niche markets, player props, and risk alerts — sits at the top of this page.Read 0 data points
Lineups
4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Moreirense4-2-3-1Vasco Costa
vs
Estrela4-2-3-1Joao Nuno
Moreirense bench
9
A. FerreiraGoalkeeper13
N. JohnMidfielder23
Kevyn MonteiroDefender4
C. TeguiaForward7
L. SemedoForward⚽ 73′9
J. GowerMidfielder30
KikoDefender27
Yan MaranhaoForward99
L. SantosDefender71
Estrela bench
9
D. PintoGoalkeeper1
S. van HooijdonkForward20
NiDefender3
T. MoustierMidfielder28
J. EncadaDefenderyel 77′17
K. JanssonMidfielder6
J. MeirelesForward18
G. DoueMidfielder39
Alisson SouzaForward80
Recent form
Last 5 matches
MoreirenseL0-1
L0-1
D1-1
W1-0
L1-4
EstrelaL1-2
L0-1
L0-1
L0-2
W4-0
Head-to-head
8 previous meetings8 previous meetingsMoreirense leads 3-1
Moreirense3wins
Drawn
4draws
Estrela1wins
38%50%13%
Aggregate goals8 matches
13
9
Recent meetings
5- 20 Dec 25Estrela0–0MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 02 Mar 25Moreirense1–1EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 28 Sept 24Estrela2–1MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 07 Apr 24Moreirense2–2EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 11 Nov 23Estrela0–1MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Market odds
via 10BetSource: 10Bet12 bookmakers · 5.4% spread
Match Winner
MoreirenseFav
2.6538%
Draw
3.1032%
Estrela
2.7237%
Double Chance
Moreirense or Draw
1.4469%
Moreirense or EstrelaFav
1.3077%
Draw or Estrela
1.4569%
Total Goals 2.5
Over
2.2045%
UnderFav
1.6561%
Both Teams to Score
YesFav
1.8554%
NoFav
1.8554%
Half-time Result
Moreirense
3.2531%
DrawFav
2.0050%
Estrela
3.2531%
Correct Score · 5 most likely
1:119%
5.25
1:015%
6.50
0:115%
6.50
0:013%
7.50
2:113%
8.00
Injuries & suspensions
0 reportedNo injuries or suspensions reported.
Both squads at full availability.
Standings
Primeira Liga 2025Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 31 | 13-10-8 | +14 | 49 |
| 7 |  Guimaraes | 31 | 12-6-13 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 31 | 11-6-14 | -11 | 39 |
| 9 |  Alverca | 31 | 10-8-13 | -15 | 38 |
| 10 | Estoril | 31 | 10-7-14 | -1 | 37 |
| 11 | Arouca | 31 | 10-5-16 | -21 | 35 |
| 12 |  Rio Ave | 31 | 8-10-13 | -19 | 34 |
| 13 |  Santa Clara | 31 | 8-8-15 | -10 | 32 |
| 14 | Nacional | 31 | 8-7-16 | -7 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 31 | 6-10-15 | -17 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 31 | 5-11-15 | -26 | 26 |
| 17 |  Tondela | 31 | 4-10-17 | -29 | 22 |