UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League·Semi-finals
Full time
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
0:0
Full time
Aston VillaAston Villa
VenueCity Ground
RefereeJoao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
Kickoff

Cortex Pick

premium tier
Generated
AI summary54% confidence

Cortex projects: Nottingham Forest win

This is a genuine coin-flip semi-final and the market agrees, with only 4% implied probability separating the sides. Forest's recent form (3 wins, 12 scored, 3 conceded across last 5) and home venue give them a slight edge, but the H2H is emphatically Villa's — 5 wins in 9 with a 3-1 league win in January and a 1-1 draw three weeks ago.

  • Forest unbeaten in last 5 (W-W-W-D-D, 12gf/3ga) with home advantage at City Ground
  • Villa rank 2 in EL group stage (7W-0D-1L, GD+8) and arrive on a 4-win streak in last 5
  • H2H tilts Villa: 5 wins from 9, including 3-1 in January and recent 1-1 draw
Free during launch
CxCortex Pick·PREMIUMGenerated 2d ago·claude-opus-4-7
6won·5lost·0push
Match winnerWon
Nottingham Forest win
Institutional-grade read · Opus reasoning
0conf
FormH2HMarketInjuriesStandingsEdge
AI Signal Radar45 avg

Six signal dimensions Cortex weighed. The shape is what the AI saw before the call — thin lobes mean thin data, full lobes mean high conviction.

  • Form30
  • H2H25
  • Market30
  • Injuries55
  • Standings30
  • Edge100

This is a genuine coin-flip semi-final and the market agrees, with only 4% implied probability separating the sides. Forest's recent form (3 wins, 12 scored, 3 conceded across last 5) and home venue give them a slight edge, but the H2H is emphatically Villa's — 5 wins in 9 with a 3-1 league win in January and a 1-1 draw three weeks ago. Villa's defensive injuries (Kamara) and Forest's (Boly, Savona, Murillo doubtful) point to an open game where both attacks find space; Igor Jesus (2.08 shots/90) and Gibbs-White (1.82 shots/90) headline a Forest attack averaging 2.4 goals across last 5, while Villa have scored in every recent meeting. I'll lean home on venue and form momentum but cap confidence at 54 — Villa's group-stage dominance and H2H record are real counterweights.

Goals lines

Both teams to scoreYes
64%
Total goals 2.5Over
58%

Player props

6 calls

Bookmakers price player performance lines loosely — this is where the AI hunts the edge.

IJ
Igor Jesushome
Shots Over 1.5

2.08 shots/90 across 75 apps — large sample, line sits well below his rate

Lost
70%
EA
E. Andersonhome
Tackles Over 1.5

2.49 tackles/90 across 53 apps — high-volume defensive midfielder

Won
68%
MG
M. Gibbs-Whitehome
Shots on target Over 0.5

42 SoT in 51 apps (~0.82/90) — primary creator and shot-taker for Forest

Lost
65%
MC
M. Cashaway
Tackles Over 1.5

1.85 tackles/90 across 46 apps; faces Forest's wide threat down his flank

Won
62%
YT
Y. Tielemansaway
Key passes Over 1.5

1.83 keyPass/90 — Villa's primary creator with Kamara/Barkley out

Lost
60%
EK
E. Konsaaway
Yellow cards Under 0.5

Only 1 yellow in 49 apps — exceptionally clean disciplinary record

Won
60%

Period markets

4 calls
2H
2H GoalsOver 1.5

Both sides high-scoring in last 5 (Forest 12gf, Villa 12gf) and Villa frequently strike late via Elliott/transitions

Lost
58%
1H
1H GoalsUnder 1.5

Tournament knockout context plus recent H2H 1-1 draw suggests measured first-half tempo

Won
56%
1H
1H BTTSNo

Two-legged semi-final dynamics often produce cautious openings; Forest 3ga in last 5 suggests early discipline

Won
55%
75'+
Goal 75-90'Yes

Villa's late-goal tendency in form run plus open H2H pattern, but no specific timing data — modest confidence

Lost
52%

Cortex Uncovered

What the AI weighed
  • Forest unbeaten in last 5 (W-W-W-D-D, 12gf/3ga) with home advantage at City Ground
  • Villa rank 2 in EL group stage (7W-0D-1L, GD+8) and arrive on a 4-win streak in last 5
  • H2H tilts Villa: 5 wins from 9, including 3-1 in January and recent 1-1 draw
  • Forest depleted defensively: Boly, Savona out; Murillo questionable; backup keeper John Victor injured
  • Villa missing Kamara and Barkley in midfield, weakening press resistance
  • Market is tight (Forest 2.5 vs Villa 2.78) — true coin-flip pricing
Fair priceNottingham Forest win

Forest at 2.5 (40% implied) reflects venue + form fairly; no standout edge either way, draw at 3.2 has mild appeal given H2H tightness but not enough to call value

Key matchups

Premium tier
  • Gibbs-White's creative load (1.43 keyPass/90) vs Tielemans-anchored midfield missing Kamara's screenedge · Nottingham Forest win
  • Igor Jesus's aerial/shot volume (2.08 shots/90) vs Konsa-Mings centre-back pairingedge · Draw
  • Villa's transition threat through Elliott (14G in 24 apps) vs Forest's compromised full-back depthedge · Aston Villa win

⚠ Risk Alert

  • If Murillo fails late fitness test, Forest's back line vs Villa's transition becomes a major liability
  • Villa's away form in EL (group leaders) suggests they travel well — model may underweight this
  • First leg of a two-legged tie could produce a cagey, lower-scoring affair contradicting the over
  • Cunha questionable — losing him alongside Awoniyi/Hudson-Odoi guts Forest's attacking depth

Recent form

Last 5 matches
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
No recent matches on file
Aston VillaAston Villa
No recent matches on file

Head-to-head

0 previous meetings
No previous meetings on record between these teams.

Injuries & suspensions

0 reported
No injuries or suspensions reported.

Both squads at full availability.