Waalwijk vs Roda · Eredivisie · 1 May 2026 · Cortex AI

Eredivisie·Round of 16

Scheduled

Waalwijk

Fri 1 May

18:00

your local time

Roda

VenueMandemakers Stadion

RefereeE. Blank

KickoffFri 1 May, 18:00

Cortex Pick

pro tier

Generated

AI summary58% confidence

Cortex projects: Waalwijk win

Waalwijk 13gf in last 5 vs Roda 6gf; home side clearly more prolific in recent form.
H2H goals average 2.78/game across 9 meetings; three of last four ended with 3+ goals.
BTTS Yes landed in three of the last four H2H meetings including the 1-1 draw on 2026-04-28.

Free during launch

CxCortex Pick·PROGenerated 1d ago·claude-sonnet-4-6

Match winner

Waalwijk win

0conf

AI Signal Radar84 avg

Six signal dimensions Cortex weighed. The shape is what the AI saw before the call — thin lobes mean thin data, full lobes mean high conviction.

Form68
H2H100
Market81
Injuries84
Standings79
Edge90

Waalwijk's superior form (13gf/5 vs Roda's 6gf/5) and home advantage justify a moderate lean on the home win at 2.1. The fixture's historical goal output — 25 goals in 9 H2H, BTTS in recent clashes — aligns with odds implying Over 2.5 at -240, but the signal here is genuine rather than market-manufactured. Roda's away record and lower offensive output (6gf last 5) reduce their win probability below the implied 32%, making the draw the secondary risk rather than an away upset.

Goals lines

Both teams to scoreYes

68%

Total goals 2.5Over

72%

Player props

3 calls

Bookmakers price player performance lines loosely — this is where the AI hunts the edge.

T. van der Leijhome

Shots Over 2.5

Van der Leij averages 3.55 shots/90 across 37 apps (1396 min), highest on Waalwijk's roster. Line of 2.5 sits well below his seasonal per-90 average; strong home fixture supports continued volume.

65%

A. van den Hurkaway

Shots Over 1.5

Van den Hurk averages 2.13 shots/90 (67 total in 2829 min, 37 apps) and leads Roda with 16G. Line of 1.5 sits comfortably below his seasonal average even against a solid Waalwijk home defence.

62%

J. Unekenhome

Shots on target Over 1.5

Uneken posts 2.58 shots/90 total and 1.23 on-target/90 (38 on target in 2789 min) across 37 apps. Line of 1.5 is marginally above per-90 average; 15 goals this season support quality conversion rate.

60%

Period markets

2 calls

1H GoalsOver 0.5

Three of the last four H2H meetings produced first-half goals; Waalwijk's attacking output (13gf last 5) and Roda's leaky away form (7ga last 5) suggest early scoring likely.

65%

75'+

Goal 75-90'Yes

High-volume shooters on both sides (van der Leij 3.55 shots/90, van den Hurk 2.13/90) and high H2H goal average (2.78/game) support a late goal; knockout context may push tempo in closing stages.

60%

Cortex Uncovered

What the AI weighed

Waalwijk 13gf in last 5 vs Roda 6gf; home side clearly more prolific in recent form.
H2H goals average 2.78/game across 9 meetings; three of last four ended with 3+ goals.
BTTS Yes landed in three of the last four H2H meetings including the 1-1 draw on 2026-04-28.
Roda missing Kother and Schwirten; Waalwijk without Kuijpers and van de Loo — both squads weakened but Roda's absences hit a thinner roster harder.

Market trapRoda win

Roda 3.1 (implied 32%) overstates their chance given poor form (2W in last 5), weaker goal output, and two key absentees. Lay Roda or avoid.

Cortex Quick Read

Market & statistical baseline

Free

📊

Headline read

Combo Double chance : Waalwijk or draw and -3.5 goals

Waalwijk edge

Match outcome splitAPI model · implied %

Waalwijk45%

Draw45%

Roda10%

Statistical comparison5-axis · API model

Form

50%

Attack

50%

Defense

50%

Head-to-head

62%

38%

Waalwijk · league form

Roda · league form

Public statistical baseline. Cortex AI’s full read — niche markets, player props, and risk alerts — sits at the top of this page.Read 0 data points

Recent form

Last 5 matches

Waalwijk

D2-2

W5-0

L1-5

W4-1

D1-1

Roda

D1-1

L0-2

D2-2

W3-1

L0-1

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

9 previous meetingsRoda leads 4-3

Waalwijk

3wins

Drawn

2draws

Roda

4wins

33%22%44%

Aggregate goals9 matches

Recent meetings

28 Apr 26Roda1–1WaalwijkEredivisie
13 Feb 26Waalwijk1–2RodaEerste Divisie
19 Sept 25Roda1–4WaalwijkEerste Divisie
23 Jul 21Roda2–4WaalwijkFriendlies Clubs
05 Apr 19Roda0–0WaalwijkEerste Divisie

Market odds

via 10Bet

Source: 10Bet12 bookmakers · 2.8% spread

Match Winner

WaalwijkFav

2.1048%

Draw

3.6028%

Roda

3.1532%

Double Chance

Waalwijk or Draw

1.3375%

Waalwijk or RodaFav

1.2282%

Draw or Roda

1.7059%

Total Goals 2.5

OverFav

1.6262%

Under

2.2544%

Both Teams to Score

YesFav

1.5365%

2.4042%

Half-time Result

Waalwijk

2.5539%

DrawFav

2.2544%

Roda

3.6527%

Correct Score · 5 most likely

1:115%

6.50

2:114%

7.00

1:012%

8.50

1:211%

9.00

2:010%

10.00

Injuries & suspensions

6 reported

Waalwijk

R. KuijpersKnee Injury
Out
T. van de LooKnee Injury
Out
F. Al MazyaniInjury
Doubt
B. ZorgdragerInjury
Doubt

Roda

T. KotherKnee Injury
Out
J. SchwirtenKnee Injury
Out

Standings

Eredivisie 2025

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

#	Team	P	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	PSV Eindhoven	31	25-2-4	+49	77
2	Feyenoord	31	17-7-7	+23	58
3	NEC Nijmegen	31	15-10-6	+24	55
4	Ajax	31	14-12-5	+22	54
5	Twente	31	14-12-5	+19	54
6	AZ Alkmaar	31	14-7-10	+7	49
7	Heerenveen	31	13-8-10	+4	47
8	Utrecht	31	12-8-11	+8	44