Almere City FC vs Den Bosch · Eredivisie · 2 May 2026 · Cortex AI

Eredivisie·Round of 16

Scheduled

Almere City FC

Sat 2 May

12:00

your local time

Den Bosch

VenueYanmar Stadion

RefereeM. Nagtegaal

KickoffSat 2 May, 12:00

Cortex Pick

pro tier

Generated

AI summary56% confidence

Cortex projects: Almere City FC win

Most recent H2H (2026-04-29) ended 3-2 to Almere City, directly preceding this fixture — strong recency signal.
Last 4 H2H meetings produced 13 total goals (3.25/game), supporting over 2.5 at implied 74% (1.35 odds).
Den Bosch: L-L-D-L-D in last 5, 12ga — porous away defence aligns with Almere home attack.

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CxCortex Pick·PROGenerated 17m ago·claude-sonnet-4-6

Match winnerPush

Almere City FC win

0conf

AI Signal Radar77 avg

Six signal dimensions Cortex weighed. The shape is what the AI saw before the call — thin lobes mean thin data, full lobes mean high conviction.

Form57
H2H100
Market81
Injuries55
Standings79
Edge90

Almere City implied at 62% is close to fair given mixed form (W-L-W-L-L) and home advantage; no strong edge on match winner. Over 2.5 is the clearest call: 1.35 implies 74%, our read sits ~80% based on 3.25 goals/game across last 4 H2H meetings, Den Bosch's 12ga in 5 games, and Almere's 10gf/10ga — edge ~6pp maps to 62 confidence. BTTS Yes at 1.40 (71% implied) underprice the mutual vulnerability; both teams scored in 3 of last 4 H2H and each conceded 10+ in last 5, our read ~78% = ~7pp edge = 60 confidence. Pre-mortem for over 2.5: if Den Bosch park defensively after conceding early, a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline without BTTS kills the over — their recent draw results show they can contain scoring at times.

Goals lines

Both teams to scoreYes

60%

Total goals 2.5Over

62%

Player props

3 calls

Bookmakers price player performance lines loosely — this is where the AI hunts the edge.

K. Monzialoaway

Shots Over 1.5

Monzialo averages 1.65 shots/90 across 38 apps (3165min). Line 1.5 sits just below his per-90. Den Bosch's top scorer (18G) and primary threat — expected to be central to any attacking output. Sample size 38 apps is robust.

59%

K. Felidaaway

Tackles Over 1.5

Felida averages 2.1 tackles/90 over 38 apps (3297min). Line 1.5 sits ~0.6 below his per-90. Midfield role against a pressing Almere home side should generate above-average duel volume.

58%

S. Karlsson Grachaway

Shots Over 1.5

Karlsson Grach averages 2.35 shots/90 over 21 apps (1187min). Line 1.5 is well below per-90. Sample is borderline (21 apps) but per-90 is 57% above the line, partially compensating. Attacker role supports volume.

57%

Period markets

2 calls

2H GoalsOver 1.5

Last H2H (2026-04-29) ended 3-2; 2025-11-21 ended 5-2 — high-scoring second halves common in this fixture. Den Bosch fade late (L-L-D-L-D) and Almere home press typically intensifies after 60 mins.

58%

1H BTTSYes

3 of last 4 H2H meetings saw goals from both sides; combined 20ga in last 5 for both clubs signals mutual defensive frailty. First-half goals tendency elevated in high-stakes knockout context with both sides needing to press.

57%

Cortex Uncovered

What the AI weighed

Most recent H2H (2026-04-29) ended 3-2 to Almere City, directly preceding this fixture — strong recency signal.
Last 4 H2H meetings produced 13 total goals (3.25/game), supporting over 2.5 at implied 74% (1.35 odds).
Den Bosch: L-L-D-L-D in last 5, 12ga — porous away defence aligns with Almere home attack.
BTTS Yes at 1.40 (implied 71%) looks underpriced given both sides' combined 20ga in last 5 and 33 goals in 10 H2H meetings.

Market trapDen Bosch win

Den Bosch 4.5 (22% implied) is not value — they are 1W in last 8 competitive fixtures and lost 2-3 to Almere just 3 days prior.

Cortex Quick Read

Market & statistical baseline

Free

📊

Headline read

Combo Double chance : Almere City FC or draw and +2.5 goals

Almere City FC edge

Match outcome splitAPI model · implied %

Almere City FC45%

Draw45%

Den Bosch10%

Statistical comparison5-axis · API model

Form

100%

Attack

60%

40%

Defense

60%

40%

Head-to-head

38%

62%

Almere City FC · league form

Den Bosch · league form

Public statistical baseline. Cortex AI’s full read — niche markets, player props, and risk alerts — sits at the top of this page.Read 0 data points

Recent form

Last 5 matches

Almere City FC

L1-2

W4-1

L1-3

W3-2

Den Bosch

L2-3

L1-3

D1-1

L2-4

D1-1

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

10 previous meetingsAlmere City FC leads 5-3

Almere City FC

5wins

Drawn

2draws

Den Bosch

3wins

50%20%30%

Aggregate goals10 matches

Recent meetings

29 Apr 26Den Bosch2–3Almere City FCEredivisie
06 Apr 26Almere City FC1–2Den BoschEerste Divisie
21 Nov 25Den Bosch5–2Almere City FCEerste Divisie
01 Aug 25Almere City FC1–1Den BoschFriendlies Clubs
12 May 23Den Bosch2–2Almere City FCEerste Divisie

Market odds

via 10Bet

Source: 10Bet12 bookmakers · 5.4% spread

Match Winner

Almere City FCFav

1.6262%

Draw

4.3523%

Den Bosch

4.5022%

Double Chance

Almere City or Draw

1.2083%

Almere City or Den BoschFav

1.1785%

Draw or Den Bosch

2.2544%

Total Goals 2.5

OverFav

1.3574%

Under

3.1032%

Both Teams to Score

YesFav

1.4071%

2.8036%

Half-time Result

Almere City FCFav

2.0050%

Draw

2.5539%

Den Bosch

4.5022%

Correct Score · 5 most likely

2:114%

7.00

1:112%

8.50

3:111%

9.00

1:010%

10.00

2:010%

10.00

Injuries & suspensions

0 reported

No injuries or suspensions reported.

Both squads at full availability.

Standings

Eredivisie 2025

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

#	Team	P	W-D-L	GD	Pts
1	PSV Eindhoven	31	25-2-4	+49	77
2	Feyenoord	31	17-7-7	+23	58
3	NEC Nijmegen	31	15-10-6	+24	55
4	Ajax	31	14-12-5	+22	54
5	Twente	31	14-12-5	+19	54
6	AZ Alkmaar	31	14-7-10	+7	49
7	Heerenveen	31	13-8-10	+4	47
8	Utrecht	31	12-8-11	+8	44